Don’t stand where the lightning strikes.

“When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe.”
— Frederic Bastiat, nineteenth century French economist and writer

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
― Reinhold Niebuhr

This is part of a new worldview-based post series – intended for planning and action use by executives and managers. These posts offer an example framework that might be adapted to address particular needs and situations. Worldviews are updated weekly. Planning and action examples appear in each post. This post describes how to deal with a never-ending stream of serious disruptions.

If you would like to see how this started – an experiment, please refer to this initial post on my new direction.

A worldview-based planning and action process

We are living in very different times. Our world – both big picture and personal – has never occurred before. Learning from the past may be misleading, and possibly harmful. The past and elusive present are gone forever. We have only the unpredictable future to deal with, as it unfolds. 

The world, however defined, is now changing so quickly, chaotically, and hugely that it will greatly impact virtually everyone on earth. It will affect each individual differently, depending on their location, activities, resources, and luck. And, it will also affect every group, business, and organization differently.

A process for dealing with an unpredictable, often-chaotic future is very different from anything that we learned, experienced, or imagined. Responding to events and situations reactively may well be too late for effectiveness, and may ultimately prove disastrous.

Our recent COVID happening was an example of just such a situation. No warning, suddenly imposed lockdowns, distancing, masks, testing … all kinds of completely new dictates and challenges. We were very fortunate that this mess mostly lasted for only a year or so. We are still dealing with the aftermath in too many cases.

Will such a happening recur? It sure seems so, based on the picture summarized in these worldviews. With so little these days being predictable, we are forced to deal with a mostly uncertain, fast-changing future. What worked in a more stable, predictable past won’t work going forward. Very different approaches are essential.

What might these approaches be in practice? Answer probably is “nobody really knows”. I sure don’t, but I have in mind one process approach that may well be appropriate for such times and challenges.

Will it work? Well, I am using it personally today to guide myself through whatever is happening out there. I may also get the opportunity to help a few clients navigate the turmoil using their versions.

For those readers who are new to this website and its series of worldview posts, here are links to the original post if you are interested:

Agility, adaptability, and resilience – plus a guiding worldview

Business simulation modeling

Where to start?

A baseline worldview for planning, decision-making, and action

While the process in concept is quite simple, the devil as always is in the details.

First priority: lockdowns

From my example list of impact and action keywords for focusing planning and action – see the prior post, I have suggested lockdowns as a first priority. Why? Because everything that I see coming along near-term points to the urgent need by the-powers-that-be-and-wannabe for assured control in this time of pre- and post-election chaos and disruption.

The 2024 elections (or selections) will I think resolve nothing much. A few names will change, but the driving forces behind whatever happens will remain. The unipolar hegemonic West’s globalist world domination agenda will continue at any cost. The multipolar BRICS+ nations will resist, mostly by going their own way – as they are doing today.

World War III, already in progress as I have argued, will not go big-nuke (i.e., catastrophic) for the quite reasonable reason that the-powers-that-be-and-wannabe do not want to end up ruling over a world of smoking radioactive rubble.

Just when we think that things can’t possibly get any worse, however, they do just that. Years 2025 and probably 2026 are going to be a chaotic period in which the world system sorts itself out in its own manner. Whether we like it or not: “How Can You Fix a Broken System? You Can’t. It Fixes Itself.

Desperate to maintain (or gain) control over everything, our rulers-and-wannabes seem virtually certain to exercise their weakening control in the form of lockdowns. This will happen mostly in the West, plus in a few waffling nations elsewhere (Argentina?).

Since my present location and related interests are inconveniently embedded in the West, I am anticipating being locked down again in some form by late 2024 post-selections, or early 2025 at the latest. Of course, the 2024 selections will resolve nothing much, but they will result in a period of severe chaos and confusion. Rulers-and-wannabes will have only this one remaining opportunity to gain and hopefully hold on to control of the rapidly declining West: via lockdowns.

Like it or not, they seem to be in our near-term future.

What if this doesn’t happen, and something entirely different and unexpected happens? Black swan days?

Lockdowns: a proactive gamble, or a reactive gamble?

Since lockdowns will either happen or not happen, we have a clear binary choice on placing our bets on either a proactive preparation or a reactive wait-and-see. The stakes, unfortunately, could not be much higher. For many, it will be a survival choice.

If one decides to prepare – the proactive gamble, the potential loss would appear to be capped at whatever such preparation may cost.

If one instead decides to wait-and-see if a lockdown materializes – the reactive gamble, the potential loss could be as great as catastrophic.

My bias here is for the capped-loss proactive gamble. Personally, and my counsel to anyone who asks for themselves.

You of course knew this particular nastiness was coming, yes?

Preparing for possible lockdowns involves at least these three:

  • Locations – operations, customers, and suppliers
  • Systems
  • Employees – essential vs. non-essential

They are surely interrelated, but let’s look at them one at a time.

Locations – operations, customers, and suppliers

Lockdowns are likely to be uneven in scope, enforcement, and duration. Some places will be severely scoped, enforced, and extended in duration, while others will be lightly applied, and even ignored (to the extent possible). Just like COVID-19 that we experienced.

Ideally, one might be located in regions where lockdowns were weakly or not at all applied. In practice, we are mostly fixed in our locations – at least over the relatively short-term.  For purposes here, let’s think of a late-2024-through-2026 timeframe.

There may be some especially difficult locations: New York City for sure; California mostly; Massachusetts mostly. There are likely to be quite a few more potentially nasty locations for lockdowns. First step in planning therefore, might be to identify any such locations in your realm of activity based on what you experienced in 2020.

While these locations may be fixed in the short-term, the activities and staffing in each may offer greater flexibility. One might, for example, want to ensure that no mission-critical operations are solely located in a lockdown-severe city. Duplication, with quick-changeover capabilities, seems vital.

This rationale extends to both customers and suppliers. Can you identify any of major importance to you that have a lockdown-severe primary location? If these exist, then you may want to encourage them to provide your vital resources in at least one, and probably two or three alternative “safer” locations. You want to have redundancy of vital capabilities.

Lockdowns – systems

These include the usual communications and computing systems, but also extend to transportation of materials, products, and people. Probably service and support centers as well for all of these. 

The proactive game here in my view is to create as much redundancy as possible and necessary. You want to be able to maintain all important functions regardless of which of these systems becomes unavailable or severely restricted. Again, redundancy of vital capabilities.

I would see a list of these systems and capabilities being prepared, and then carefully reviewed for impacts of unavailability, entire or restricted, on your overall operations. Those that are especially critical need to be mirrored.

Lockdowns – essential vs. non-essential

This distinction applies mostly to employees and other external people-resources whose free movement and availability are vital. The government as you are undoubtedly aware has helpfully drawn up a great list of jobs that are officially deemed essential (and non-essential). Gov’t-essential, of course.

I addressed this in a post a while back: “Are You Essential or Non-Essential? Or Maybe Both.” Turns out, much to my non-surprise, that I am mostly non-essential and would thus be greatly restricted by any significant lockdown. In passing, I note that my recent relocation to the relatively lockdown-unfriendly New Hampshire may handle this problem. Or so I hope.

Getting your truly-essential people (1) identified, and (2) reclassified if at all possible, into “gov’t-essential” categories seems to be a vital prep-step. It may be possible in some cases to assign officially non-essential folks to jobs that are officially essential, at least on a part-time basis. There are probably quite a few more fiddles of this nature that can be devised by your creative folks.

Lockdown resistance developing or already here?

Most of us went along with the COVID 2020 lockdowns as best we could on the understandable belief that the authorities and experts were telling us the straight story. But today? What’s the old saying …

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

Lockdowns are going to be much harder to pull off the second time around. People aren’t likely to buy another COVID-type scare. This means that a more drastic, different cause seems to be required. How about martial law, for reasons – called for and enforced by all of the usual suspects?

This is my bet at least.

“My first article on the coming backlash – admittedly wildly optimistic – went to print April 24, 2020. After 6 weeks of lockdown, I confidently predicted a political revolt, a movement against masks, a population-wide revulsion against the elites, a demand to reject ‘social distancing’ and streaming-only life, plus widespread disgust at everything and everyone involved.”

“I was off by four years. I wrongly assumed back then that society was still functioning and that our elites would be responsive to the obvious flop of the whole lockdown scheme. I assumed that people were smarter than they proved to be. I also did not anticipate just how devastating the effects of lockdown would be: in terms of learning loss, economic chaos, cultural shock, and the population-wide demoralization and loss of trust.”

“The forces that set in motion those grim days were far more deep than I knew at the time. They involved a willing complicity from tech, media, pharma, and the administrative state at all levels of society.”

“There is every evidence that it was planned to be exactly what it became; not just a foolish deployment of public health powers but a ‘great reset’ of our lives. The newfound powers of the ruling class were not given up so easily, and it took far longer for people to shake off the trauma than I had anticipated.”

“Is that backlash finally here? If so, it’s about time.”

Backlash or not, most of us have to deal with whatever comes along of this nature. We pretty much have to leave the backlashing chores to devoted activists. We have other, more important, work to do.

But first, we might want to have a likely lockdown scenario in mind as a basis for our planning and action efforts.

Lockdown rationale: War plus Disease-X plus Climate?  

Another COVID happening, now called “Disease-X”, and maybe even “H5N1 – bird flu”, seems unlikely to fly (pun intended). Too much resistance today, too much distrust of anyone touting yet another Big-Pharma-favoring outbreak. The powers-that-be-and-wannabe surely know this, and that their time to grab control is fast disappearing. So, what are they to do?

Add two more major crisis hammers simultaneously? Like “war” and “climate”? Of course.

All three are being aggressively promoted right now. These seem to be reaching a convenient crescendo, together. Oh yes, and 2024 selections are coming up. If nobody wins, or if the now highly-suspect voting process points to a winner, results seem almost certain to be disputed, probably mostly-peacefully as always. With such nationwide turmoil, the obvious solution is not a lockdown but martial law.

What exactly is “martial law”? Wikipedia provides this helpful definition:

“Martial law is the replacement of civilian government by military rule and the suspension of civilian legal processes for military powers. Martial law can continue for a specified amount of time, or indefinitely, and standard civil liberties may be suspended for as long as martial law continues.”

So, we would not be locked down, but kindly-and-gently guided under martial law declarations by a mostly-peaceful and well-meaning military. Only if one misbehaves noticeably might one be detained or worse. But definitely not locked down. Comforting thought, yes?

I nearly forgot about the coming financial collapse, with associated forceful transitioning to CBDCs and mandatory digital IDs. This is looking to me more and more like what has been planned and is now being swiftly executed.

Our planning and action environment, then, really looks like this:

  • Wars everywhere, as usual
  • Climate crisis, as usual
  • Disease-X, H5N1, or whatever
  • Financial collapse, globally
  • Monetary system transformation to CBDCs

These happenings seem quite sufficient to justify martial-law-not-lockdowns in our near future. We would not be locked down, unless of course one disagrees, resists, or otherwise misbehaves. The majority would be absolutely free – to comply and obey: Why Are We So Obedient and Compliant?

Since “lockdown” no longer works as an operative term, and “martial law” sounds far too nasty and dictatorial, a new euphemism will have to be invented. Under this new term, we will be completely free to comply and obey. Or else. But, joyfully, at least we won’t be locked down.

There is a bit of good news in all of this

If things proceed more or less along the lines of what I see, then we will not be locked down. Instead, we will come under some form of martial law, although they may well find a less-threatening term for it. The majority will not be locked down, but only if each person behaves as the powers-that-be-and-wannabe wish, dictate, and enforce.

This situation seems to me like an opening for at least some degree of flexibility in times of the coming new non-lockdown. The trick here will be to comply and obey where absolutely necessary, subject of course to personal conscience, and to seek all possible flexibility where it may be of most value to us. This is where creativity would be invaluable.

With this happy situation as a likely, near-term operating environment, we can turn our attention to planning and action …

Here is what I would suggest for the hypothetical manufacturing business in this example:

Prioritize the target locations list
Rank these locations by importance to the survival and success of the overall business.

Classify each employee as “essential” or “non-essential”
Determine the essential-non-essential classification of each employee in each target location, starting with the top priority locations. The mechanics for doing this are quite simple, if a bit tedious. See my post that addresses just this: “Are You Essential or Non-Essential? Or Maybe Both.”.

Classify each target location as “essential” or “non-essential”
Remember that this distinction as devised by the-powers-that-be-and-wannabe (TPTBAW) depends on worker (job) classifications in the location, not on the facility itself.

Identify employees “essential” to your business but classified as “non-essential” by TPTBAW
You probably want to rank each such employee on an “ABC” scheme of importance to your business, with “A” being of critical value, and “C” being of value but not critical.

➽ For “non-essential” employees (TPTBAW), can each be reassigned?
The idea here is to “reassign” as many “non-essential” employees (per TPTBAW) as possible to “essential” employee jobs (TPTBAW). This may involve giving them split assignments so they can still work on their current job, but can do enough on their new “essential” job to support the “essential” classification.

For “non-essential” locations (TPTBAW), can these be reclassified?
This may involve, for example, moving “essential” employees from other locations so as to build the target location into an “essential” headcount.

Develop a lockdown handling procedure for each location
These procedures may be quite varied if location functions differ significantly. Procedures should recognize that lockdowns may be imposed suddenly, arbitrarily, and without warning. Your COVID-19 experience would probably offer a good model for what needs to be done, timeframes, and priorities.

You may well be able to come up with a number of different and/or better ideas, but the goal here is to ensure that your critical business locations can be designated as “essential” under the relevant TPTBAW rules and regulations.

Next process post – preview

No less important than lockdowns is your vulnerability to black swan hits: unforeseeable in nature, magnitude, and timing. Chaotic times such as we are experiencing seem to attract black swan events and situations, unpredictably.

This means that we must plan for significant impacts of an unknown nature. We will know what they are only after they hit and do their damage. They operative keyword here is impacts.

Some examples:

  • Sudden major drop in sales
  • Loss, or significant inaccessibility, of a major supplier
  • Failure of a bank holding significant cash reserves

You can probably come up with a few dozen more impacts from any number of events or situations. What is important is how the impact-from-whatever-cause affects you. From whatever cause.

💥 How large a sales decrease could your business handle and recover from? This would of course depend on the decrease pattern and the operating units affected. How might you best respond?

💥 What if a major supplier or related supply chain suffered a severe breakdown? Again, the impact would depend on its pattern, operating units involved, and products involved.

💥 Suppose that your primary bank failed and a substantial part of your operating cash reserves was no longer accessible, perhaps permanently?

Answering such questions really requires a simulation model of your business or organization. You want to be able to see where your limits of survivability may lie. And you want to be able to test various possible responses.

The importance of having a business simulation model available is consequently the topic for the next worldview post.

For purposes of this post, we can now return to the worldview that contains a number of updates …

Updates:
I am giving up on this annoying blue highlighting scheme for updates. I won’t go back and change it on prior posts, but from here on I’ll try to manage post length with much better editing. I hope.

You can go back to individual sections in the original post (Worldview 2) by clicking on the worldview section links provided below:

#1. World War III

#2. The 2024 Elections

#3. Disease-X

#4. Ukraine, Gaza, …

#5. Digital IDs and CBDCs

#6. Economic Outlook

$7. Climate Crisis

For the next few worldview posts, I’ll flag upfront (right here) any significant changes in the stories below so that you can skip re-reading earlier material.

#1. World War III

Preamble:

As I have argued in recent posts (see here and here), we are already in a world war in its early stages. It is so far at least non-big-nuke (i.e., not a world-ending catastrophe), and fortunately non-any-nuke. It is endless local and regional wars – as usual. The military-industrial complex is prosperous and happy.

Despite numerous warnings about imminent escalation, the reality seems to be just more small-wars-as-usual. This seems quite reasonable since the various warmongers – rulers-and-wannabes everywhere – do not want to dominate a rubble-filled, radioactive world. They want a fully-functioning world, albeit with many fewer annoying people out and about.

So far, things in this respect are going well for them. Their main problems appear to be nasty competition between and within major blocks of rulers-and-wannabes. We have the West – the U.S., UK, EU, NATO, Canada, Australia, … – battling in a proxy manner with the rapidly emerging Eurasian and Global South block of nations – led by Russia, China, and India (now called BRICS+ as a group).

The unipolar West has quite successfully created, and continues to bunglingly enable, the growing group of multipolar BRICS+ nations. The latter seem almost certain to prevail in their own realm, leaving the West to continue its purposeful and quite rapid decline.

Summary:
#1. World War III
➧ Current:

The underway WW III may lead up to a much greater WW III, as this article suggests:

“But for me, the MI6 angle is the first one to be considered in this attack [attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow], not the last one. And the keys lie in that very timeline. Because, as opposed to assuming that the US is the catalytic agent for events here — easy to think because [Victoria] Nuland is involved — reframing this as a distinctly British operation (with help from rogue elements in the State Dept. and CIA, of course) yields a far more coherent narrative.”

“Remember, we’re dealing ultimately with narcissists here. Then let’s remember cui bono. Because without assessing who benefits from this attack, we aren’t doing the analysis right. Moreover, I’m not trying to blame shift here away from the US. We are definitely a player here. But it’s defining who ‘we’ in the US is where the nuance lies.”

“What if Nuland was fired because knowledge of this attack finally reached the right people at State and the DoD? And they realized, rightly so, that an attack like this would make it nearly impossible for Putin to ignore and force his hand politically to escalate the war in Ukraine to a level that would justify to the people of the West that it was finally time for us to get involved over there.”

“… But, as I said, the real goal of this war wasn’t just getting Russia, they had to maneuver the US into a terminal state as well, through the costs of fighting a war we weren’t capable of sustaining. And that was the bridge too far for US interests not beholden to the ghost of Trotsky and the tears of Bill Kristol.”

“And now you have the ‘who benefits’ from this operation. The US saw no upside in brutally killing hundreds of Russian civilians, knowing full well it would be US doing the majority of the fighting. The UK and EU need the US to do this because if the US comes out of this war unscathed (like in WWII) then the current arrangement will continue, and their plans for domination will fail.”

If this isn’t world war via proxies, I can’t imagine what would be – apart from an escalation to a big-nuke version. For planning purposes, this suggests a lengthy period of localized fighting and terrorist hits by major player proxies.

Government spending will continue at ruinous rates, eventually leading to financial and economic collapse – probably first in the West. This in turn means high price inflation will continue as well. For those who are exposed to war zone and even troubled domestic sources, supply chain disruptions and shortages will probably become part of the “normal” business environment.

It also reinforces my sense that nothing any government or its lackeys says is reliable. The truth in fact may lie in directions opposite to what these sources are saying. Here is an article that seems to agree:

Huge game-changing happening in the Middle East that will likely affect war strategizing globally:

“Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israeli military sites on April 13-14 signals a tectonic shift in the regional balance of power. While the media remains preoccupied with the number of outdated Iranian drones that were shot down during the onslaught, military analysts are far more focused on the way that Iran’s ballistic missiles cut through Israel’s vaunted air defense systems striking sites at the Nevatim and Negev Air Bases.

“What the operation proved is that Israel’s ‘deterrents supremacy’ is largely a fiction based on overly optimistic assumptions about the performance of their air defense capability. When put to the test, these systems failed to stop many of the larger and more destructive ballistic missiles from hitting their targets. This, in turn, revealed that Israel’s most heavily-defended and critically-important military sites remain overly-exposed to enemy attack.”

“More importantly, any future attack will not be announced days in advance nor will Iran attempt to avoid high-value targets or heavy casualties. Instead, they will use their most lethal and state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles to inflict as much death and destruction on Israel as is required to make sure that the Jewish state is unable to lift a hand against Iran in the future. In short, what Iran’s historic attack on Israel shows is that any future provocation by Israel will be met by an immediate and overwhelming response that will leave Israel battered, bloodied and broken.”

“… The failure of the combined US-Israeli defense systems in the face of a concerted Iranian missile attack exposed the short-comings of the US ballistic missile defense capabilities world-wide… This means that the US and NATO forces in Europe are vulnerable to attack from advanced Russian missile technologies which match or exceed those used by Iran to attack Israel. It also means that China would most likely be able to strike and sink US navy ships in the Pacific Ocean in the event of a conflict over Taiwan…. And that North Korea could do the same to US ships and forces ashore in the vicinity of Japan and South Korea… The global strategic implications of this stunning Iranian accomplishment are game-changing … Checkmate, Scott Ritter [former weapons inspector], Substack”

This seems to mean that defensive systems, in the West at least, can no longer stop a serious military attack. Aggressive actions will have to be substantially toned down until nations in the West (and probably others) have been able to remedy the current defense system weaknesses. Which may take years.

I think that the likelihood of any serious world war mischief escalations has been severely reduced as a result, hopefully for quite a few years.

WW III (non-big-nuke version) is currently underway.
WW III (non-big-nuke version) is currently underway.

#2. The 2024 Elections

➧ Preamble:

We are now in the thick of a major, even huge, election season. We can probably expect to see the very worst from both sides. There are no evident good guys in this escalating mess. The Uni-party will win and government will go on as usual. Very little will change except a few names.

The big uncertainty that I can see is one in which the election/selection results are not accepted by either party. This would involve many challenges, great disruptions, and huge protests. Government may effectively cease to function, assuming that it presently functions – see this post: “Trust. So Important. So Hard to Gain. So Easy to Lose.”.

Should most of this occur, it seems likely that someone will arrange for martial law, or equivalent lockdowns. Some, it appears, think that the COVID-19 lockdowns and related restrictions were a dry run for the real thing come 2024 election times. It probably doesn’t matter much.

There would seem to be a couple of rather likely outcomes:

(1) 2025 will be a year of internal fighting and disruptions. Probably not “civil war” in any major respect like 1860-65, but at least a serious breakdown of civil order. Kind of like today.

(2) Major cities will see the most intense and damaging confrontations. These may in fact be a trigger for lockdowns of some kind nationwide.

Will these cause financial and economic collapse? Not in the short term I think, but perhaps helping things along for more serious consequences in 2026 and beyond.

➧ Summary:
#2. 2024 Elections
Current:

Much as I might wish otherwise, some very useful information and insights appear in what may otherwise be regarded as political diatribes and worse. Here is a very recent example:

Americans today are increasingly polarized, as if they constitute two separate nations.
— Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning

“Our current Millennial [i.e., 1946-present 80-year saeculum] Crisis was triggered by the Federal Reserve/Wall Street/Government created financial disaster in 2008 and subsequent outrageously desperate, totalitarian, un-Constitutional, extreme acts designed to keep the ruling class in power, while impoverishing and enslaving the masses in a surveillance state techno-gulag.”

“The polarization and fractures have become too deep to repair. The country, and the western world in general, are hurtling towards a darkening abyss of civil conflict, financial collapse, global war, societal chaos, and loss of life on a scale grander than WW2, the Civil War, and the American Revolution combined. Our technological advancements have outstripped our ability to intelligently, thoughtfully, and humanly, use this power for the benefit of future generations. The destructive deficiencies of human nature, such as: greed, desire for power, hatred, arrogance, resentment, and an unlimited supply of self-delusion, continue to plague our world, as only the most power-hungry psychopaths rise to the highest levels of government, business, religion, and finance.”

“The immense technological power in the hands of egocentric, megalomaniacal, sadistic, billionaires and their highly paid toadies, lackeys, and apparatchiks, inserted throughout the media, government, academia, banking, and corporations, has pushed the world to the brink of Armageddon. We are entering the sixteenth year of this Fourth Turning. Based on history, we can expect a climax of this Crisis in the 2030-to-2032-timeframe. The path to that climax is guaranteed to be violent and unforgiving.”

And a more recent view from the surviving member of the Strauss & Howe combo:

Roughly half of all Americans think a civil war is likely. And a growing number of social scientists agree that the United States now fits the checklist profile of a country at risk. Trust in the national government is in steep decline. Check. Respect for democratic institutions is weakening. Check. A heavily armed population has polarized into two evenly divided partisan factions. Check. Each faction embodies a distinctive ethnic, cultural, and urban-versus-rural identity. Each wants its country to become something the other detests. And each fears the prospect of the other taking power. Check, check, and check.
– Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023)

The 2024 elections are unlikely to resolve any of this mess. Elections seem mostly to provide periodic venues for opposing groups to shout at one another in the nastiest possible manners.

For planning purposes, it is the disruption that seems most important. We will be dealing with disruption consequences of great severity and scope.  This suggests focusing on vulnerability and resilience as a top action priority.

Top 2024 candidates for President. Scary, both.
Top 2024 candidates for President. Scary, both.

#3. Disease-X

Preamble:

Disease-X, in case you have not heard, is a term used by the World Health Organization (WHO), a UN agency, to describe a surely coming but as yet unknown, devastating disease. Like COVID-19, even. I went into this whole mess in some detail in a recent post: “Who Is WHO? The Great Resetter, Maybe?”.

The main purpose of Disease-X, so far as I can see, is to help drive world domination by the United Nations (UN), the WHO, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the World Bank, IMF, and kin. The WHO has succeeded in getting virtually every nation on earth to sign up for its control agenda, which conveniently supersedes any national policies and interests. It basically establishes a worldwide police force to tackle the ravages of Disease-X before it actually happens. Very proactive, yes?

Disease-X then, for planning purposes, is simply (well, not quite so simply) a means of achieving world domination by one set of rulers-and-wannabes. Unfortunately, they may well succeed, at least temporarily, but not without serious and powerful pushback. From whom?

From the rapidly evolving and strengthening, multipolar, Eurasian and Global South (aka Global Majority) nations led by Russia and China. This situation is indeed inconvenient for the West-driven world dominators, who detest competition.

While this global control contest is going on, we must be able to function in some manner regardless. It might therefore be reasonable to assume a Disease-X lockdown (or martial law equivalent) as a serious near-term risk.

Most of us have the COVID-19 lockdown experience to guide us in preparing for the next one. How did the COVID lockdown impact you? What would you have done to better prepare for COVID if you had advance warning?

Summary:
#3. Disease-X
Current:

Disease-X sounds a bit vague and techie, yes? Much better to have something much more official-sounding. Like H5N1

“Amidst growing concerns, experts have cautioned that a bird flu pandemic may be looming on the horizon, one that could be catastrophic on a scale ‘100 times worse than Covid-19.’ The alarm was raised following reports of the virus being found in multiple species, including cows, cats, and humans, which could potentially accelerate the virus’s mutation to become more transmissible among humans.”

“… ‘This appears to be 100 times worse than Covid, or it could be if it mutates and maintains its high case fatality rate,’ said Fulton. ‘Once it’s mutated to infect humans, we can only hope that the [fatality rate] drops.’”

“According to the World Health Organization, the H5N1 fatality rate stands at an alarming 52 percent, a stark contrast to the less than 0.1 percent mortality rate of Covid-19. The concern is that if H5N1 becomes easily transmitted among humans while maintaining its high fatality rate, the consequences could be dire.”

Keep in mind that that the “disease” of whatever name may well be nothing more than a way to scare many kind trusting folk into behaving in the prescribed manner. Which they mostly will. This of course is the plan, nasty disease or not.

Whether or not the latest version of Disease-X is anything at all, the reality that must be addressed is that far too many people will believe, unquestioning. It seems likely to result in another, far more restrictive, social lockdown. This is our planning reality.

“Risk of bird flu infection in humans remains low.
According to Erica Susky, a Toronto-based medical microbiologist certified in infection control, the risk of human-to-human transmission of bird flu is generally low. Cases in humans typically occur in individuals who have direct contact with birds, such as during slaughter or preparation. While bird flu has a high fatality rate in humans, it rarely occurs.”

“Susky highlighted the primary concern surrounding the influenza virus’s ability to mutate and adapt. With increased contact between bird populations and humans, the likelihood of a novel strain adapting to spread in humans increases. Industrial agriculture and urban settings are potential hot spots for the spread of influenza viruses between human and bird populations.”

Another hard lockdown or equivalent within the next two years seems highly probably from what I have read. It will just happen, like 2020 COVID, suddenly. Reactively preparing will be very costly for most.

Agency of the United Nations
Agency of the United Nations

#4. Ukraine, Gaza, …

Preamble:

These wars are either local or regional disputes of the kind that have been going on at least forever, or they are proxy wars driven by major powers against each other. Most likely, both. Gaza, Yemen, and kin seem to be the former. Ukraine is very clearly a proxy war between the hegemonic West – U.S., UK, EU, NATO, … – and Russia (along with China and other Eurasian plus Global South nations) responding in a multipolar manner.

Local and regional wars are just part of our civilized environment. It’s just what we do. The current proxy war between the big guys, however, is of extremely serious concern. It is presently escalating steadily, and seems likely to break out into something major. This was dealt with above in #1 – WW III.

“In untangling the causal factors behind the many crises we face today, the trail of breadcrumbs always leads to the transnational banking cartel, led by the BIS, which has the determining influence in shaping the system of governance under which our societies operate. This network likely constitutes the very ‘monolithic and ruthless conspiracy’ that President John F. Kennedy had warned about.”

The Power Behind the Throne and the Bankers’ Forever Wars.

“In the recent past, Ukraine was militarized and Nazified to strike against Russia with the same powers behind the throne pulling the levers.  As the US-installed Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk spoke appreciatively in 2014, ‘… international bankers are ready to help us. … We would not have survived without their international assistance.’”

“The Western financial system, having operated globally over the past 80 years, is coming to an end, and in its place, the bankers will attempt to introduce a new global financial system based upon Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), Digital ID, and Universal Basic Income (UBI). The system will facilitate surveillance of the most intimate aspects of our lives and demand our absolute compliance. There is more to CBDCs than meets the eye …”

I thought about merging this one with the #1 WW III concern above, but I am still thinking that they are different – at least in terms of how each might impact us. “Bankers’ wars” are truly different.

Summary:
#4. Ukraine, Gaza, ...
Current:

While I continue to see us as already in a WW III, with Ukraine, Gaza, … being used to some degree for quite different purposes, the article below has a quite interesting perspective. See my recent post on this: “World War III Is Underway – But Not As Expected”.

“If you’re getting the feeling like the globalists are really pushing hard for WWIII these days, you’re not alone.”

“In the past few months there has been multiple instances of European and US officials hinting at the possibility of a new military draft, the EU has talked openly about boots on the ground in Ukraine, NATO officials have stated unequivocally that they WILL NOT accept a loss in Ukraine to the Russians and the Kremlin has warned once again that nuclear weapons are on the table if western troops enter the war. The US government has recently asserted that Ukraine will be joining NATO, a red line in the sand for Russia.”

“Then there’s Israel and Gaza. I warned months ago in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights ‘The Last War’’ that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian ‘embassy’ or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”

“In other words, much like WWI, the situation is being escalated by the political elites despite the fact that the general public in the west is increasingly opposed to participating in the conflict. The globalists want to send us to war whether we like it or not.  Every decision they have made so far makes peaceful resolution impossible.”

There is just no way that anyone can reliably predict what’s going to happen next in this chaotic situation. It is not really a black swan since we can figure out general directions, but the series of events and situations that will actually occur are pretty much random to us.

Perhaps wars and rumors of war have always been used to mess with people’s minds, on both sides. Perhaps this is what many of the local wars are about. Mind control.

My sense is that we can use reporting such as this to indicate where we might want to focus our attention on becoming more agile, adaptable, and resilient.

Is the Ukraine situation also being used by some folks to mess with our minds?
Is the Ukraine situation also being used by some folks to mess with our minds?


#5. Digital IDs and CBDCs

Preamble:

Digital IDs and digital currencies (CBDCs) are all about money and control. And what is “money”? Money is a tool for control. In a rather lengthy and rambling article …

“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”
—  Mayer Amschel Rothschild, patriarch of the Rothschild banking dynasty, in 1790

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation.”
— Napoleon Bonaparte

“The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes.”
— Benjamin Disraeli, in 1844

“There is something behind the throne greater than the King himself.” 
— Sir William Pitt, Prime Minister, in 1770

“Glenn Beck dropped a similar clue. In his interview with Tucker Carlson published on February 21, 2024, he shared a story of his encounter with George W. Bush:”

“I thought of something George Bush told me in the Oval Office. I was asking about the policies and how they were going to change, and he said, ‘Glenn, don’t worry, whoever sits behind this desk, in that chair, is going to have the same advice given by the same advisors and they’ll realize, the President’s hands are tied.’ I walked out of that room horrified… Why do we even have elections?”  [AP Note: We have elections to anaesthetize the electorate to believe that they have the power to change policy – they can’t, and they don’t.  Britain is an oligarchy and has been for centuries.]”

… There are three fundamental truths about modern banking [emphasis added]:
❖ The money isn’t yours.
❖ The money isn’t actually there.
❖ The money isn’t really money.

This appears to be the essence of what is happening in our money world. The real powers-that-be want to dominate the world and they are well along on the path to doing so. Digital IDs and CBDCs are their tools.

Summary:
Current:

The preamble article referred to above really contains the essence of what is happening money-wise. Digital money is coming very quickly. Much of the necessary system infrastructure is already in place. It is a virtual certainty – rare in a world of so much uncertainty.

Timing of this transition is not clear, but what is clear is that the powers-that-be, aka bankers and assorted overlords, know that their time for succeeding is short. The longer the delay in execution, the more resistance will develop. Once it gets organized, the resistance will be fierce.

For us non-bankers and humble businesspeople, we can only accept this as part of our near-future reality. We can’t do much of anything to impede it or change it. We must plan to live with it – but our way as much as possible.

The action options are relatively few at this point. We have to figure out how this money (and surveillance) transition might affect us. Then we can devise some creative ways to minimize the hassle and potential problems. This will be easier to do today than if we wait until we are forced to act – to comply and obey.

In this regard, you might want to have a look at a recent post: “Why Are We So Obedient and Compliant?”.

The IMF’s XC framework: A centralized policy For CBDCs.
The IMF’s XC platform was released as a theoretical model in November of 2022 and matches closely with their long discussed concept of a global SDR, only in this case it would tie together all CBDCs under one umbrella along with ‘legacy currencies’ (dollars and euros and so on).”

“XC is marketed as a policy structure to make cross-border payments in CBDCs ‘easier’ for governments and central banks. Of course, it places the IMF as the middleman controlling the flow of digital transactions. The IMF suggests that the XC platform would make the transition from legacy currencies to CBDCs easier for the various nations involved.”

“As the IMF noted in a discussion on centralized ledgers in 2023:”

“We could end up in a world where we have connected entities to some degree, but some entities and some countries that are excluded. And as a global and multilateral institution, we’re sort of aiming to, you know, provide a basic connectivity, a basic set of rules and governance that is truly multilateral and inclusive. So, I think that is – the ambition is to aim for innovation that is compatible with policy goals and that is inclusive relative to the broad membership of, say, the IMF.”

“To translate, decentralized systems are bad.
‘Inclusivity’ (collectivism) is good.”

“And the IMF wants to work in tandem with other globalist institutions to be the ‘facilitators’ (controllers) of that economic collectivism.”

However, the rapidly expanding BRICS+ alliance of Eurasian and Global South nations is working swiftly on a non-SWIFT system to handle national currencies as well as any CBDCs that appear. The IMF globalist effort here seems doomed to failure, along with so much else that they are driving.

Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge. Use “Back” button to return to post.

#6. Economic Outlook

Preamble:

As always, the official story is that the economy is fine and getting better. Based on the theory that anything the government and kin say is almost certainly false, this statement means that things financial and economic are bad and getting worse. In practice, we might want to proceed with great caution.

What is our own situation today? Good and getting better, or not so good and getting worse? Or perhaps just static and sort of okay.

Whatever our situation is reflects what is actually going on in our part of the world. It is valuable information about our actual operating reality. No matter what official and media sources say.

So, our first step would seem to be figuring out just what our operating reality is and, where possible, why. If we see things looking good and getting better, then we need to be very clear on the causes here. Are our markets growing solidly? Are we doing better competitively? Is inflation making our numbers look good? …

The underlying reality for most today seems to be one of continued real price inflation and broad customer-market weaknesses. This may mean that our good results are price-driven, not output quantity-driven. Vital to know which.

My guess is that most individuals, businesses, and organizations are struggling, at least somewhat, or doing okay at best. Lots of dark storm clouds on the economic and financial horizon. Great uncertainty as to where things are headed.

Caution may be the best plan for the moment – surely until selection season is over.

Summary:
#6. Economic Outlook
Current:

Well, at least the job market is growing nicely, so says the government and its lackeys. For example, this glowing headline in a recent article:

“The headline numbers once again look good w/ over 300k payrolls added and the employment number from the household survey rising even faster …”

“… but what kinds of jobs are being created? Turns out they’re all part-time:”

“And this isn’t new – it’s a continuation of a long trend: full-time employment is lower today than Feb ’23 w/ all of the net job creation since then being part-time work:”

This reflects a “good” economy? Sure doesn’t look so good to me. Why so many part-time jobs? The article goes on to explain …

“Why the surge in part-time employment? Many Americans have been laid off and replaced 1 full-time job w/ 2 or 3 part-time ones; people are also picking up additional jobs to make ends meet in a cost-of-living crisis; this has caused an unprecedented divergence between the household and establishment surveys, since the latter double counts individuals w/ multiple jobs while the former survey shows a net loss of jobs since Aug ’23:”

People working two or more jobs just to stay afloat, probably with their credit pretty much maxed out as well. This seems like pretty grim news. How might this situation affect your plans and actions going forward?

Some kind of serious economic crisis appears to be a certainty  at this point.

It is not just jobs data that is being misstated, here is what the real inflation situation is:

“A recent research paper by four noted economists, including Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary under Barack Obama and former Harvard President, discovered that the real inflation rate during the Biden years, using pre-1983 calculations reached 18% in 2022.”

“The number is the highest inflation rate the country has seen in over 50 years.”

“The researchers also found that if the pre-1983 calculations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation rate has not come back down under 7 percent since its peak in 2022.”

“What would inflation look like under the pre-1983 formula? Bolhuis et al. then went on to see if they could recalculate the official CPI numbers using a pre-1983-like formula that incorporated the cost of mortgage interest, auto loan interest, and credit card interest on the cost of living. They found three things: first, that the pre-1983-like formula led to a dramatically different estimate of inflation in 2022 and 2023, peaking at 18 percent in November 2022.”

“Second, they found that consumer sentiment—as measured by the widely-used University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment—correlated much more strongly with the pre-1983 CPI formula than it did with the modern one that excludes interest costs.”

My takeaway from this unfortunate meddling with data is that inflation is indeed high and staying there, requiring many people to take on extra jobs part-time to make ends meet – despite what official figures are claiming.

Official and estimated CPI.

See also my post of how consumer price inflation is being manipulated: “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”.

Price inflation? Probably just another rumor, or maybe even a conspiracy theory.
Price inflation? Probably just another rumor, or maybe even a conspiracy theory.

#7 Climate Crisis

Preamble:

Much today is being done because of the so-called “climate crisis”. In the 1970s, it was global cooling and a potential new ice age driving the climate repair efforts. More recently, global warming seems to have taken over these climate mischief concerns. As a way to reconcile these two opposing causes, they are today merged into a catchall called climate crisis, or simply climate change. Whatever their current label, these are driving huge efforts to replace fossil fuels, to shift populations into 15-minute cities, and to reduce the amount of land available for growing food.

Despite the fact that over 1,600 scientists including Nobel prize winners have stated strongly that there is no climate crisis, an amazing number of people are on board with climate-change-prevention projects. Electric vehicles are one of the major results of climate crisis efforts. True believers in EVs are still many. Well, perhaps not so much lately.

I certainly can’t dispute what the 1,600+ scientists are saying. This means to me that the “climate crisis” is actually part of the globalist agenda. All of the big players here – WEF, UN, WHO, IMF, … – pretty much admit that, while carrying on the pretense of addressing climate-whatever.

People will believe what they want to believe. What’s important to folks trying to live their lives sensibly and to folks managing businesses and organizations is that this pretense is our operating reality. We can’t change it. In practice, we must deal with it as best we can, while ignoring any related disbeliefs.

See my post from a while back on this: “Beliefs and Stories, Not Facts, Actually Rule the World”.

Our operating reality is whatever the globalists are pushing for, regardless of their public rationale. The globalists seem pretty likely to succeed in major ways – near-term at least. This means that our challenge is figuring out how their climate-whatever efforts may affect us and our businesses, and devising ways to comply and obey – minimally and selectively – while protecting ourselves from the potentially most damaging aspects.

  Summary
Current:

Dealing with so-called threats like this does not in my mind involve opposing them – except as opportunities arise – but instead focusing on protecting ourselves and our interests. More power to the climate alarmists, as the article below illustrates.

The non-activist challenge involves identifying your points of vulnerability and seeking practical ways to strengthen and protect these. There may even be some ways to benefit from such globalist efforts, but with great care.

“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts July, August, and September will be hotter than usual. And for those who view warmer temperatures as problematic, that’s a significant cause for concern.”

“’Earth’s issuing a distress call,’ said United Nations secretary-general António Guterres on March 19. ‘The latest State of the Global Climate report shows a planet on the brink.’”

“Fossil fuel pollution is sending climate chaos off the charts. Sirens are blaring across all major indicators: Last year saw record heat, record sea levels, and record ocean surface temperatures. … Some records aren’t just chart-topping, they’re chart-busting.”

Umm …

The climate crisis agenda, especially by the UN, has been evident for quite some time. This report simply confirms what we mostly believed. It does not change the worldview for this concern.

A 15-minute city for us soon-to-be-carless folks. Walking and biking are so good for our health as well.
A 15-minute city for us soon-to-be-carless folks. Walking and biking are so good for our health as well.