Don’t stand where the lightning strikes.

“When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe.” — Frederic Bastiat, nineteenth century French economist and writer

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.” ― Reinhold Niebuhr

This is part of a new worldview-based post series. It is intended for planning and action use by executives and managers. These posts offer an example framework that might be adapted to address particular needs and situations. Worldviews are updated weekly. Planning and action examples appear in each post. This post describes how to extract action targets from worldviews.

If you would like to see how this started – an experiment, please refer to this initial post on my new direction.

A planning and action context for a world system in transition

I have addressed our complex world system and its inherently fragile, unpredictable behavior in which even small impacts can cause huge changes. See for example “How Can You Fix a Broken System? You Can’t. It Fixes Itself.” and “Has Our World Reached Terminal Complexity At Last?”.

The bottom line is that we are going through a massive world system transition that will play itself out mostly in its own unpredictable, uncontrollable way. This is just what large complex systems do. Things that we might do to affect this transition are more likely to be treated by the system as random disturbances.

This means that we can’t change what is happening – our living, planning, and acting context. The best we can do is to productively survive this period of chaos and instability. Opposition and resistance, except as a matter of personal conscience, will be largely futile. Productive, constructive survival – and possibly even coming out of this much stronger – seems like a much better goal.

This at least is my personal goal and operating context assumption. What follows in these worldview posts is how I would suggest planning and acting to achieve this goal: productive survival + becoming stronger.

Here is just one example of the kinds of unique challenges that we are facing today:

Do you have a plan for when your “money” disappears?

You know of course what money is. It is what we use to facilitate a few zillion business and personal transactions each day. A kind of invisible process, but it seems to work just fine. Until it doesn’t.

Money can’t just disappear, can it?

Well, yes it can. Do you know how and why? Most importantly, do you have a plan in place, and associated prep underway, to survive the disappearance on money. No? This means that you will face a great challenge – very soon – dealing reactively in a world without money as we have known it.

Of course, most individuals, groups, businesses, and organizations today have such a plan, with critical steps already underway. You also. For sure.

If you don’t, for reasons, this might be a good time to do so. The main action window may well close shortly. Thereafter, reactive responses will be extremely limited. Today, proactive steps are still available – to a few at least.

And no, gold is not the answer. Gold can be actually or effectively confiscated, as was amply demonstrated in 1933 and 1971. This is just a part of a long list of what our world is up to today.

You are of course fully prepared for such an unlikely happening. If yes, then read no further. Or at least check out this piece …

A worldview-based planning and action process

We are living in very different times. Our world – both big picture and personal – has never occurred before. Learning from the past may be misleading, and possibly harmful. The past and elusive present are gone forever. We have only the unpredictable future to deal with, as it unfolds. 

The world, however defined, is now changing so quickly, chaotically, and hugely that it will greatly impact virtually everyone on earth. It will affect each individual differently, depending on their location, activities, resources, and luck. And, it will also affect every group, business, and organization differently.

A process for dealing with an unpredictable, often-chaotic future is very different from anything that we learned, experienced, or imagined. Responding to events and situations reactively may well be too late for effectiveness, and may ultimately prove disastrous.

Our recent COVID happening was an example of just such a situation. No warning, suddenly-imposed lockdowns, distancing, masks, testing … all kinds of completely new dictates and challenges. We were very fortunate that this mess mostly lasted for only a year or so. We are still dealing with the aftermath in too many cases.

Will such a happening recur? It sure seems so, based on the picture summarized in these worldviews. With so little these days being predictable, we are forced to deal with a mostly uncertain, fast-changing future. What worked in a more stable, predictable past won’t work going forward. Very different approaches are essential.

What might these approaches be in practice? Answer probably is “nobody really knows”. I sure don’t, but I have in mind one process approach that may well be appropriate for such times and challenges.

Will it work? Well, I am using it personally today to guide myself through whatever is happening out there. I may also get the opportunity to help a few clients navigate the turmoil using their versions.

For those readers who are new to this website and its series of worldview posts, here are links to the prior post if you are interested:

Agility, adaptability, and resilience – plus a guiding worldview

Business simulation modeling

Where to start?

A baseline worldview for planning, decision-making, and action

The next several worldview posts will address various aspects of using the worldview process in actual practice – or at least as I would suggest doing. While the process in concept is quite simple, the devil as always is in the details.

Being rather action-oriented myself, I think that a suitable place to begin is looking at “Action Areas” listed in each worldview section below.

Action Areas: Getting started …

Below are the example action areas from my seven major worldview concerns. Keep in mind that these reflect a hypothetical manufacturing business. Your set of worldview concerns and related action areas will likely be much different.

➧ #1. World War III:
➽ Supply chains – ensure redundant sourcing
➽ Key materials – increase inventories
➽ Financial – diversify sources and reserves storage

➧ #2. The 2024 Elections:
➽ Prioritize customers and suppliers for tighter relationships
➽ Identify your points of vulnerability to election disruptions
➽ Model potential impacts and your responses

➧ #3. Disease-X:
➽ Plan now for operations under tight lockdowns
➽ Identify locations where lockdowns will be weakly enforced
➽ Ensure that all key employees are classified as essential workers

➧ #4. Ukraine, Gaza, …:
➽ Safe, local, and redundant materials sourcing
➽ Reduce or eliminate business activities in likely war zones
➽ Identify product opportunities in war materials, services

➧ #5. Digital IDs and CBDCs:
➽ Identify activities that will be affected most heavily by these
➽ Comply visibly but cautiously – determine how to do this
➽ Select three financial experts as sources to use here

➧ #6. Economic Outlook:
➽ Debt reduction and isolation/disposal of over-leveraged units
➽ Increase non-cash reserves using production and tradeable materials
➽ Identify core business units for survival focus if necessary

➧ #7 Climate Crisis:
➽ Identify specific activities that may be impacted by climate efforts
➽ Identify possible product opportunities in climate spending
➽ Diversify sourcing locations and reduce those heavily “climate” targeted

At first glance, you might conclude immediately that you are already addressing many of these. I sure hope so. What is different here is the underlying worldview that ties these together. Otherwise, they may well be addressed independently and inconsistently relative to the driving situations – impacts – in each worldview component.

So, now let’s collect the triad of “Impacts” in each component:

#1. World War III:
💥 Government debt exploding due to war costs
💥 Price inflation of almost everything
💥 Supply chain disruptions, shortages

➧ #2. The 2024 Elections:
💥 No group will be happy, regardless of the outcome
💥 Many challenges, great disruption, huge protests
💥 Year 2025 will be filled with competing groups fighting

➧ #3. Disease-X:
💥 Lockdowns, almost globally
💥 Intensive surveillance – digital IDs for all enforced
💥 Harsh enforcement due to great unrest and protests

➧ #4. Ukraine, Gaza, …:
💥 NATO and the EU try to push back against Russia, unsuccessfully
💥 New war zones will occur, keeping at least the Middle East in turmoil
💥 Failure of the West in Ukraine will accelerate shift to multipolar world

➧ #5. Digital IDs and CBDCs:
💥 Virtually complete surveillance will be achieved
💥 Alternatives to CBDCs (e.g., cryptos) will be eliminated
💥 Strong resistance will organize and disrupt this process

➧ #6. Economic Outlook:
💥 Production costs will increase steadily
💥 Heavily-leveraged businesses will fail
💥 Supply chain disruptions, shortages will continue indefinitely

➧ #7 Climate Crisis:
💥 Continued efforts to phase out fossil fuels and replace with EVs
💥 Continued efforts to move populations into 15-minute cities
💥 Government spending on “climate” will increase greatly

Now we have a set of worldview component impacts that can provide a potentially strong, integrating linkage for our action areas.

Next step: Moving from general to specifics

Keep in mind here that the concerns, impacts, and action areas, as well as wording, reflect my example context, and that yours may be quite different. My next step would be to extract specifics as the foundation for developing real action plans. Again, you may well do even this differently.

My approach here is simple: extract keywords from each of the worldview line items for action areas and impacts:

Table 1 below shows what I came up with for my manufacturer example in terms of action keywords.

Table 2 contains keywords for each impact section.

In actual practice, these would probably be developed by a planning team rather than an individual. It is vital to obtain insights and local terminology for these key transition words.

Your priorities would also be quite different from those implicit in my worldview example here.

The goal in this step is to compress and prioritize the keyword lists as much as possible. This is likely to be an iterative process, since certain keywords in the worldview may not be operationally useful or understandable.

Table 3 below contains my compressed and prioritized keyword list, arranged by primary business functions.

Tbale 1.

Table 1. An extract of keywords from each worldview action area line item.

Table 2.

Table 2. An extract of keywords from each worldview impacts line item.

Table 3. Keyword summary by primary organization units.

Next post – process preview

Table 3 provides a basis for addressing the worldview content in practice. I have organized the keywords by likely organizational responsibility since this is typically how major planning and execution tasks are distributed.

Lockdowns, a critical issue because of their extremely high, near-term likelihood (in my view at least), effectively appear or belong in each operating group’s list. My counsel would be to make this a top priority for attention. Post-lockdown, your range of options will almost certainly be dramatically reduced. 

For purposes of this post, we can now return to the current worldview that contains a number of updates …

Updates:
Worldview sections below that have updates – additions or changes to previously posted material – are highlighted in this annoying blue in case you just want to skim over or skip the earlier commentary.

Worldview material that remains unchanged from the prior post is not highlighted. My goal here is to retain the most important content in each prior worldview section for continuity purposes, but without noticeably adding to section length.

You can go back to individual sections in the most recent post (Worldview 2) by clicking on the worldview section links provided below:

#1. World War III

#2. The 2024 Elections

#3. Disease-X

#4. Ukraine, Gaza, …

#5. Digital IDs and CBDCs

#6. Economic Outlook

$7. Climate Crisis

#1. World War III

Preamble:
As I have argued in recent posts (see here and here), we are already in a world war in its early stages. It is, so far at least, non-big-nuke (i.e., not a world-ending catastrophe), and fortunately non-any-nuke. It is endless local and regional wars – as usual. The military-industrial complex is prosperous and happy.

Despite numerous warnings about imminent escalation, the reality seems to be just more localized-wars-as-usual. This seems quite reasonable since the various warmongers – rulers-and-wannabes everywhere – do not want to dominate a rubble-filled, radioactive world. They want a fully functioning world, albeit with many fewer annoying people out and about.

So far, things in this respect are going well for them. Their main problems appear to be nasty competition between and within major blocks of rulers-and-wannabes. We have the West – the U.S., UK, EU, NATO, Canada, Australia, … – battling in a proxy manner with the rapidly emerging Eurasian and Global South block of nations – led by Russia, China, and India (now called BRICS+ as a group).

The unipolar West has quite successfully created, and continues to bunglingly enable, the growing group of multipolar BRICS+ nations. The latter seem almost certain to prevail in their own realm, leaving the West to continue its purposeful and quite rapid decline.

Update:

A note here on the great likelihood of our various belligerents self-destructing – as they always have done in past. The current array, despite huge power and considerable success in their nasty endeavors, are creating today the seeds of their own destruction. Our real challenge consequently is surviving, and perhaps even benefiting from, whatever these arrogant, power-obsessed, ruthless leaders and followers may generate before their ultimate, certain,  demise.

Today, more WW III saber rattling, but still no signs of real action. My sense here is still that nobody wants to take the final big-nuke step because it will leave just a smoking, radioactive, unlivable mess. Rulers-and-wannabes are allegedly people (possibly AI-augmented), and sane people want something left to happily rule over. Assuming that at least a few somewhat sane people are still among the current rulers-and-wannabes.

Summary:

The underway non-big-nuke WW III may lead up to a much greater WW III, as this article suggests:

To see the Luongo quote that I removed for this post, please click on this link.

If this isn’t world war via proxies, I can’t imagine what would be – apart from an escalation to a big-nuke version. For planning purposes, this suggests a lengthy period of localized fighting and terrorist hits by major player proxies.

Government spending will continue at ruinous rates, eventually leading to financial and economic collapse – probably first in the West. This in turn means that high price inflation will continue as well. For those who are exposed to war zone and even troubled domestic sources, supply chain disruptions and shortages will probably become part of the “normal” business environment.

It also reinforces my sense that nothing any government or its lackeys says is reliable. The truth in fact may lie in directions opposite to what these sources are saying.

“… I believe that the reason the establishment is pressing so hard for WWIII is partly because of the upcoming elections and also because their covid agenda failed. Covid lockdowns and the vaccine passport system were their big play to create a permanent authoritarian environment with the ability to crush conservative groups that refused to submit. And no matter how you slice it they didn’t get what they wanted. World war is the natural Plan B.”

“It’s important to understand that every crisis created by globalists is meant to destroy the freedom minded. The true target is not Russia or Iran; they are peripheral. These events are designed to create an environment conducive to tyranny, they act as cover for engineered economic collapse, and they act as cover for the REAL war against those people that still defend liberty.”

“You could say that WWIII has already started, at least in economic terms. I also highly doubt that the end game for the globalists is a worldwide nuclear exchange; why spend decades building a massive control grid only to vaporize it all in seconds? I do think the danger of kinetic warfare is skyrocketing and that US and European citizens will be directly affected. It will take a sizable resistance movement to change the path we are being forced to follow, and things will get much worse before they get better.”

Update? Nothing at the moment. Just same-old mini-war stuff, as usual.

WW III (non-big-nuke version) is currently underway.
WW III (non-big-nuke version) is currently underway.

#2. The 2024 Elections

Preamble:

We are now in the thick of a major, even huge, election season. We can probably expect to see the very worst from both sides. There are no evident good guys in this escalating mess. The Uni-party will win and government will go on as usual. Very little will change except a few names.

The big uncertainty that I can see is one in which the election/selection results are not accepted by either party. This would involve many challenges, great disruptions, and huge protests. Government may effectively cease to function, assuming that it presently functions – see this post “Trust. So Important. So Hard to Gain. So Easy to Lose.”.

Should most of this occur, it seems likely that someone will arrange for martial law, or equivalent lockdowns. Some it appears think that the COVID-19 lockdowns and related restrictions were a dry run for the real thing come 2024 election times. It probably doesn’t matter much.

There would seem to be a couple of rather likely outcomes:

(1) 2025 will be a year of internal fighting and disruptions. Probably not “civil war” in any major respect like 1860-65, but at least a serious breakdown of civil order. Kind of like today.

(2) Major cities will see the most intense and damaging confrontations. These may in fact be a trigger for lockdowns or martial law nationwide.

Will these cause financial and economic collapse? Not in the short term I think, but perhaps helping things along for more serious consequences in 2026 and beyond..

Summary:
Current:

Much as I might wish otherwise, some very useful information and insights appear in what may otherwise be regarded as political diatribes and worse. Here is an example that identifies what is going on in America that originates outside of traditional politics.

  • Paul Craig Roberts, President Reagan’s Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, writing in the Institute for Political Economy, concisely describes an America that elections won’t fix no matter who (if anyone) wins: “A New Russia Has Emerged”:

Interesting take on events shaping the 2024 U.S. elections from an insider.

“So what am I officially predicting for the “next pandemic”?

☑ 1. It won’t be launched until after the major elections this year, because they want new politic faces untarnished by Covid

☑ 2. It will likely be bird flu or some other respiratory disease, launched in the winter to hijack the real flu season again

☑ 3. The chosen disease will fit into one or more pre-existing agenda – either impacting food or originating from some forced “climate change” connection or both

☑ 4. They will move faster, producing “vaccines” in 100 days to stop people getting wise to the deception as they did with Covid

☑ 5. They will try and avoid lockdowns, but use them as a threat to enforce vaccine mandates more rigorously

☑ 6. They will clamp down harder on “mis- and dis-information” before launching the new narrative.

☑ 7. The next pandemic will have a multipolarity angle to establish a fake binary …”

The 2024 elections are unlikely to resolve any of this mess. Elections seem mostly to provide periodic venues for opposing groups to shout at one another in the nastiest possible manners.

For planning purposes, it is the disruption that seems most important. We will be dealing with disruption consequences of great severity and scope.  This suggests focusing on vulnerability and resilience as a top action priority.

Top 2024 candidates for President. Scary, both.
Top 2024 candidates for President. Scary, both.

#3. Disease-X

Preamble:

Disease-X, in case you have not heard, is a term used by the World Health Organization (WHO), a UN agency, to describe a surely coming but as yet unknown, devastating disease. Like COVID-19, even. I went into this whole mess in some detail in a recent post: “Who Is WHO? The Great Resetter, Maybe?”.

The main purpose of Disease-X, so far as I can see, is to help drive world domination by the United Nations (UN), the WHO, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the World Bank, IMF, and kin. The WHO has succeeded in getting virtually every nation on earth to sign up for its control agenda, which conveniently supersedes any national policies and interests. It basically establishes a worldwide police force to tackle the ravages of Disease-X before it actually happens. Very proactive, yes?

Disease-X then, for planning purposes, is simply (well, not quite so simply) a means of achieving world domination by one set of rulers-and-wannabes. Unfortunately, they may well succeed, at least temporarily, but not without serious and powerful pushback. From whom?

From the rapidly evolving and strengthening, multipolar, Eurasian and Global South (aka Global Majority) nations led by Russia and China. This situation is indeed inconvenient for the West-driven world dominators, who detest competition.

While this global control contest is going on, we must be able to function in some manner regardless. It might therefore be reasonable to assume a Disease-X lockdown (or martial law equivalent) as a serious near-term risk.

Most of us have the COVID-19 lockdown experience to guide us in preparing for the next one. How did the COVID lockdown impact you? What would you have done to better prepare for COVID if you had advance warning?

Summary:

Current:

Disease-X sounds a bit vague and techie, yes? Much better to have something much more official-sounding. Like H5N1

To see the previous post quote that I removed, please click on this link.

Keep in mind that that the “disease” of whatever name may well be nothing more than a way to scare kind, trusting, folk into behaving in the prescribed manner. Which they mostly will. This of course is the plan, nasty disease or not.

Whether or not the latest version of Disease-X is anything at all, the reality that must be addressed is that far too many people will believe, unquestioning. It seems likely to result in another, far more restrictive, social lockdown. This is our planning reality.

Update:

“Risk of bird flu infection in humans remains low.
According to Erica Susky, a Toronto-based medical microbiologist certified in infection control, the risk of human-to-human transmission of bird flu is generally low. Cases in humans typically occur in individuals who have direct contact with birds, such as during slaughter or preparation. While bird flu has a high fatality rate in humans, it rarely occurs.”

“Susky highlighted the primary concern surrounding the influenza virus’s ability to mutate and adapt. With increased contact between bird populations and humans, the likelihood of a novel strain adapting to spread in humans increases. Industrial agriculture and urban settings are potential hot spots for the spread of influenza viruses between human and bird populations.”

“The bird flu is very dangerous, and if it starts spreading among humans on a widespread basis a lot of people will die.”

“So why are U.S. taxpayer dollars being used to fund experiments in China that are specifically designed to make bird flu viruses even more deadly?  The following comes from an extremely shocking Daily Mail article… “

“Lawmakers are demanding answers after it was revealed the US is sending taxpayer dollars to a Chinese army lab to make bird flu viruses more dangerous to people.”

“Eighteen members of Congress are demanding answers from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) about the project, which was first revealed by DailyMail.com.”

“It is part of a $1million collaboration between the USDA and the CCP-run Chinese Academy of Sciences – the institution that oversees the Wuhan lab at the center of the Covid lab-leak theory.”

“In a scathing letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack last week, the bipartisan group said: ‘This research, funded by American taxpayers, could potentially generate dangerous new lab-created virus strains that threaten our national security and public health.’”

Another hard lockdown within the next two years seems highly probable from what I have read. It will just happen, like 2020 COVID, suddenly. Reactively preparing will be very costly for most.

Agency of the United Nations.
Agency of the United Nations.

#4. Ukraine, Gaza, …

Preamble:

These wars are either local or regional disputes of the kind that have been going on at least forever, or they are proxy wars driven by major powers against each other. Most likely, both. Gaza, Yemen, and kin seem to be the former. Ukraine is very clearly a proxy war between the hegemonic West – U.S., UK, EU, NATO, … – and Russia (along with China and other Eurasian plus Global South nations) responding in a multipolar manner.

Local and regional wars are just part of our civilized environment. It’s just what we do. The current proxy war between the big guys, however, is of extremely serious concern. It is presently escalating steadily, and seems likely to break out into something major. This was dealt with above in #1 – WW III.

“In untangling the causal factors behind the many crises we face today, the trail of breadcrumbs always leads to the transnational banking cartel, led by the BIS, which has the determining influence in shaping the system of governance under which our societies operate. This network likely constitutes the very “monolithic and ruthless conspiracy” that President John F. Kennedy had warned about.”

The Power Behind the Throne and the Bankers’ Forever Wars.

“In the recent past, Ukraine was militarized and Nazified to strike against Russia with the same powers behind the throne pulling the levers.  As the US-installed Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk spoke appreciatively in 2014, ‘… international bankers are ready to help us. … We would not have survived without their international assistance.’”

“The Western financial system, having operated globally over the past 80 years, is coming to an end, and in its place, the bankers will attempt to introduce a new global financial system based upon Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), Digital ID, and Universal Basic Income (UBI). The system will facilitate surveillance of the most intimate aspects of our lives and demand our absolute compliance. There is more to CBDCs than meets the eye …”

I thought about merging this one with the #1 WW III concern above, but I am still thinking that they are different – at least in terms of how each might impact us. “Bankers’ wars” are truly different.

Summary:

Current:

While I continue to see us as already in a WW III, with Ukraine, Gaza, … being used to some degree for quite different purposes, the article below has a quite interesting perspective. See my recent post on this: “World War III Is Underway – But Not As Expected”.

There is just no way that anyone can reliably predict what’s going to happen next in this chaotic situation. It is not really a black swan since we can figure out general directions, but the series of events and situations that will actually occur are pretty much random to us.

Perhaps wars and rumors of war have always been used to mess with people’s minds, on both sides. Perhaps this is what many of the local wars are about. Mind control.

My sense is that we can use reporting such as this to indicate where we might want to focus our attention on becoming more resilient, agile, and adaptable.

Is the Ukraine situation also being used by some folks to mess with our minds?
Is the Ukraine situation also being used by some folks to mess with our minds?

#5. Digital IDs and CBDCs

Preamble:

Digital IDs and digital currencies (CBDCs) are all about money and control. And what is “money”? Money is a tool for control. In a rather lengthy and rambling article …

To see the previous post quote that I removed, please click on this link.

… There are three fundamental truths about modern banking:

 The money isn’t yours.
 The money isn’t actually there.
 The money isn’t really money.

I kept this short piece of Peter’s quote because it is so important to understanding what is going on in our money-world today.

This appears to be the essence of what is happening in our money world. The real powers-that-be want to dominate the world and they are well along on the path to doing so. Digital IDs and CBDCs are their tools.

Summary:

Current:

The preamble article referred to above really contains the essence of what is happening money-wise. Digital money is coming very quickly. Much of the necessary system infrastructure is already in place. It is a virtual certainty – rare in a world of so much uncertainty.

Timing of this transition is not clear, but what is clear is that the powers-that-be, aka bankers and assorted overlords, know that their time for succeeding is short. The longer the delay in execution, the more resistance will develop. Once it gets organized, the resistance will be fierce.

For us non-bankers and humble businesspeople, we can only accept this as part of our near-future reality. We can’t do much of anything to impede it or change it. We must plan to live with it – but our way as much as possible.

The action options are relatively few at this point. We have to figure out how this money (and surveillance) transition will affect us. Then we can devise some creative ways to minimize the hassle and potential problems. This will be easier to do today than if we wait until we are forced to act – to comply and obey.

In this regard, you might want to have a look at a recent post: “Why Are We So Obedient and Compliant?”.

To see the previous post quote that I removed, please click on this link.

Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.

#6. Economic Outlook

Preamble:

As always, the official story is that the economy is fine and getting better. Based on the theory that anything the government and kin say is almost certainly false, this statement means that things financial and economic are bad and getting worse. In practice, we might want to proceed with great caution.

What is our own situation today? Good and getting better, or not so good and getting worse? Or perhaps just static and sort of okay.

Whatever our situation is reflects what is actually going on in our part of the world. It is valuable information about our operating reality. No matter what official and media sources say.

So, our first step would seem to be figuring out just what our operating reality is and, where possible, why. If we see things looking good and getting better, then we need to be very clear on the causes here. Are our markets growing solidly? Are we doing better competitively? Or is inflation just making our numbers look good? …

The underlying reality for most today seems to be one of continued real price inflation and broad customer-market weaknesses. This may mean that our good results are price-driven, not output quantity-driven. Vital to know which.

My guess is that most individuals, businesses, and organizations are struggling, at least somewhat, or doing okay at best. Lots of dark storm clouds on the economic and financial horizon. Great uncertainty as to where things are headed.

Caution may be the best plan for the moment – surely until selection season is over.

Summary:

Current:

Well, at least the job market is growing nicely, so says the government and its lackeys. For example, this glowing headline in a recent article:

“The headline numbers once again look good w/ over 300k payrolls added and the employment number from the household survey rising even faster …”

“… but what kinds of jobs are being created? Turns out they’re all part-time:”

“And this isn’t new – it’s a continuation of a long trend: full-time employment is lower today than Feb ’23 w/ all of the net job creation since then being part-time work:”

This reflects a “good” economy? Sure doesn’t look so good to me. Why so many part-time jobs? The article goes on to explain …

“Why the surge in part-time employment? Many Americans have been laid off and replaced 1 full-time job w/ 2 or 3 part-time ones; people are also picking up additional jobs to make ends meet in a cost-of-living crisis; this has caused an unprecedented divergence between the household and establishment surveys, since the latter double counts individuals w/ multiple jobs while the former survey shows a net loss of jobs since Aug ’23:”

For the story with charts, use this link

People working two or more jobs just to stay afloat, probably with their credit pretty much maxed out as well. This seems like pretty grim news. How might this situation affect your plans and actions going forward?

Some kind of serious economic crisis appears to be a certainty  at this point.

It is not just jobs data that is being misstated, here is what the real inflation situation is:

My takeaway from this unfortunate meddling with data is that inflation is indeed high and staying there, requiring many people to take on extra jobs part-time to make ends meet – despite what official figures are claiming.

Deviation of reported consumer price inflation from pre-1983 methods.

See also my post of how consumer price inflation is being manipulated: “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”.

Price inflation? Probably just another rumor, or maybe even a conspiracy theory.
Price inflation? Probably just another rumor, or maybe even a conspiracy theory.

#7 Climate Crisis

Preamble:

Much today is being done because of the so-called “climate crisis”. In the 1970s, it was global cooling and a potential new ice age driving the climate repair efforts. More recently, global warming seems to have taken over these climate mischief concerns. As a way to reconcile these two opposing causes, they are today merged into a catchall called climate crisis, or simply climate change. Whatever their current label, these are driving huge efforts to replace fossil fuels, to shift populations into 15-minute cities, and to reduce the amount of land available for growing food.

Despite the fact that over 1,600 scientists including Nobel prize winners have stated strongly that there is no climate crisis, an amazing number of people are on board with climate-change-prevention projects. Electric vehicles are one of the major results of climate crisis efforts. True believers in EVs are still many. Well, perhaps not so much lately.

I certainly can’t dispute what the 1,600+ scientists are saying. This means to me that the “climate crisis” is actually part of the globalist agenda. All of the big players here – WEF, UN, WHO, IMF, … – pretty much admit that, while carrying on the pretense of addressing climate-whatever.

People will believe what they want to believe. What’s important to folks trying to live their lives sensibly and to folks managing businesses and organizations is that this pretense is our operating reality. We can’t change it. In practice, we must deal with it as best we can, while suspending any related disbeliefs.

See my post from a while back on this: “Beliefs and Stories, Not Facts, Actually Rule the World”.

Our operating reality is whatever the globalists are pushing for, regardless of their public rationale. The globalists seem pretty likely to succeed in major ways – near-term at least. This means that our challenge is figuring out how their climate-whatever efforts may affect us and our businesses, and devising ways to comply and obey – minimally and selectively – while protecting ourselves from the potentially most damaging aspects.

Summary

Current:

Dealing with so-called threats like this does not in my mind involve opposing them – except as opportunities arise – but instead focusing on protecting ourselves and our interests. More power to the climate alarmists, as the article link below illustrates.

The non-activist challenge involves identifying your points of vulnerability and seeking practical ways to strengthen and protect these. There may even be some ways to benefit from such globalist efforts, but with great care.

“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts July, August, and September will be hotter than usual. And for those who view warmer temperatures as problematic, that’s a significant cause for concern.”

“’Earth’s issuing a distress call,’ said United Nations secretary-general António Guterres on March 19. ‘The latest State of the Global Climate report shows a planet on the brink.’”

“Fossil fuel pollution is sending climate chaos off the charts. Sirens are blaring across all major indicators: Last year saw record heat, record sea levels, and record ocean surface temperatures. … Some records aren’t just chart-topping, they’re chart-busting.”

Umm …

The climate crisis agenda, especially by the UN, has been evident for quite some time. This report simply confirms what we mostly believed. It does not change the worldview for this concern.

A 15-minute city for us soon-to-be-carless folks. Walking and biking are so good for our health as well.
A 15-minute city for us soon-to-be-carless folks. Walking and biking are so good for our health as well.