Predicting Our Near-Future: Is This Really Possible?

Predicting Our Near-Future: Is This Really Possible?

Nobody can predict the future, right? Especially with much of the world in chaos and worse. Predictions will be mostly wrong or misleading. But if you can’t predict, how can you plan and act? You could assume a near-future as best you can, and stay flexible in case your assumptions are way off your unfolding reality. But there is a better way …

Survival of the Fittest? Not.

Survival of the Fittest? Not.

Charles Darwin wrote about “survival of the fittest”, but within a specific context. He later emphasized “most adaptable”. Jonas Salk added “survival of the wisest”. Survival is of concern to most of us, especially today, but what is the real formula: fittest, most adaptable, or wisest? These are all quite different. Choosing the right one is truly important, but do you know why?

The World’s Systems Are Collapsing. Good News?

The World’s Systems Are Collapsing. Good News?

The world is a big mess, and getting worse by the day. Ukraine escalation. Inflation. Enormous debt. Supply chains still struggling. Petrodollar collapse. U.S. hegemony falling apart. Nuke war threats. And much more. Are we doomed, or is this actually some good news? The world is a complex system, and system collapse is how things get fixed. There may be no other way out for us.

Can We Survive In Our Super-Fragile World?

Can We Survive In Our Super-Fragile World?

Fragile means easily damaged or broken. Like our world today. Why should this be so? Our world, physically at least, looks pretty sturdy and robust. The problem here is how we define our “world”. Our world in reality consists of a huge number of semi-autonomous complex systems that are deeply interconnected and interdependent – and inherently fragile. Is our world truly survivable?

Making a Case for Not-Prepping

Making a Case for Not-Prepping

Big things are definitely happening today, even if they have not yet managed to reach broadly catastrophic dimensions. What we are clearly facing, almost certainly, is a set of major threats to our business and organizational survival. These threats are largely or completely unforeseeable in nature, magnitude, and timing. You can’t realistically “prep” for these: You can only tackle your survivability.