Nobody knows what is coming next – especially in these turbulent times. But we cannot avoid planning despite such uncertainty. You can’t plan for the “best” and you can’t plan for the “worst” because you don’t know what either extreme might be. You must plan, but how? Especially when the prospect of a nuclear World War III is facing us.
Biggest threats to businesses today are not those that are likely or identifiable but instead those that are unknown and/or highly unlikely. However, the available points of impact on your business are both evident and certain. Big question: which of your points of impact are most vulnerable to such events or situations, whatever they may turn out to be?
Much has been written recently about the “old normal” being gone and some kind of “new normal” replacing it. I have argued that the old normal refers to stability and predictability, with relatively gradual changes. COVID-19 definitely fried that world, leaving us in times of fast change, unpredictability, and chaos. So, what is next for the economy?
Forecasting provides the essential foundation for business planning. You cannot plan without having some reliable picture of what the future holds. Forecasts aim at specifics while prediction addresses the big picture. Both are normally based on data and trends. But what can you do if you have no data that can be projected reliably into the future? Like today, in the new non-normal?
