“Truth is ever to be found in simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things.”

— Isaac Newton

“Chaos is a name for any order that produces confusion in our minds.”

— George Santayana

“Truth emerges more readily from error than from confusion.”

— Francis Bacon

“The future is uncertain… but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity.”

— Ilya Prigogine

“In these matters the only certainty is that nothing is certain.”

— Pliny the Elder

“I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.”

— Richard P. Feynman

“Unrest and uncertainty are our lot.”

— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“Man lives in a world of surmise, of mystery, of uncertainties.”

— John Dewey

“Madness is the result not of uncertainty but certainty.”

— Friedrich Nietzsche

“The world is noisy and messy. You need to deal with the noise and uncertainty.”

— Daphne Koller, Israeli scientist

The U.S., Russia, China – who are the good guys? There are none. Each is pursuing its own agenda, which is not at all for our benefit. What are these power players up to? Obfuscation, everywhere. Hard to find anything that can be believed on its face. How can we live or manage without really knowing what’s going on?

Confusion. Uncertainty. About so much today. And especially about the big things that are happening whether we know it or not.

To make matters worse, there is increasing amounts of information – conjecture, really – about almost everything. How can we tell what is true, real? If virtually all we read and hear is suspect, how can we function?

The Daphne Koller quote above seems appropriate. The world is full of noise, and it is inherently messy. It is uncertain, and always will be – except when we look back after the dust settles. Unfortunately, life moves in the forward direction.

We “… need to deal with the noise and uncertainty.” Noise and uncertainty are fundamental aspects of life, and probably always have been. Dealing with them effectively, constructively, is the real challenge.

Dealing effectively with noise and uncertainty

A recent post addressed this very situation. Since you can’t predict reliably much of anything, the best that you can do is to make some assumptions about what’s happening and then act – in small, learning steps wherever possible. Results of each action step will tell you something about the validity of your assumptions. This is the learning part. You learn by acting.

That post looked mostly at what you might do once you have made some assumptions. But just how might you develop a practical set of assumptions in the first place? Especially when your assumptions may lead to high-stakes actions and serious commitments.

A time-tested approach here is simply to ignore the misbehaving world as much as possible and just proceed as best you can, whatever happens. This is in effect a largely reactive approach, since you can’t really ignore the world entirely. Proceeding on your own path nearly always requires mid-course corrections due to the world doing its thing.

Scenario planning used to work reasonably well when the world was working reasonably well. Those relatively tranquil days are long gone, as you will have noticed. We live today amidst chaos.

Nobody truly knows what’s going on

Many people out there know bits and pieces about what’s going on, but not about the big picture or how these pieces may be tied together. Even the rulers-and-ruler-wannabes who are driving much of what is going on, for their own purposes, don’t really know how things will turn out. Even though they think they do.

For practical purposes, both the present and the future are effectively unknowable – until they cooperatively turn into the past. And even then, it may still be difficult to determine just what happened.

Unfortunately, most of us need to have some idea about what’s happening simply to go about our lives and work. Walking blindly into each day seems like a sure recipe for disaster, or worse.

So, the question here becomes: how to know at least something about the mostly unknowable.

Strange situation today when there is so much information out there on almost everything. Information overload in many cases. The problem of course is that the available information in many cases is unreliable, or intentionally misleading.

This means that the real challenge is sorting out the good information from the bad. Unfortunately, it is likely not possible in most cases. We may well be obliged to consider almost all information to be of questionable or worse reliability until proven otherwise.

Note that “unreliable” in this context means that it may in reality lie pretty much anywhere along the spectrum of “absolutely true” to “absolutely false”. In the center of that spectrum is an area that should probably be labelled “who knows?”.

For some situations of interest, such as digital IDs becoming virtually mandatory everywhere, we can find a great number of views, likely scattered all along the reliability spectrum. Or perhaps bunched up near either extreme. It may be wise to consider most or all of the views as being of questionable reliability, no matter what their sources suggest or claim.

So, we are left with trying to make some operational sense of situations using a number of views of unknowable reliability. Have a nice day.

Things in reality are much more complicated

Interconnections make this exercise even more difficult. Enforced digital IDs, for example, may depend heavily upon how successful globalists are in gaining solid control. Enforcement itself may require something like martial law to achieve.

Is it then all quite hopeless, such that we can almost never know what is really going on? Not at all …

There is at least one crucial factor in all of this that can get us moving constructively: changes. Nothing is static. By observing changes, we can learn something about the process – what is actually going on – that is driving them. This in turn can tell us something about the relatively reliability of our working set of questionably-reliable information sources.

An example might be useful here. How about digital money – Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – taking over? This is a major goal not just of the West’s “Great Reset” globalists, but also of most of the Eurasian and Global South nations. The last post addressed the current state of our Great Resetters.

Note that CBDCs are simply another type of fiat money issued by governments like our cash and backed in general by government promises (i.e., IOUs). CBDCs however are intended primarily for surveillance purposes, which in turn permits detailed control of people through controlling what and how much they can buy.

CBDCs – just another form of bank IOUs, aka FEDERAL RESERVE BANK NOTES fiat money.
CBDCs – just another form of bank IOUs, aka FEDERAL RESERVE BANK NOTES fiat money.

Using changes to learn about what’s happening in CBDCs

This is a particularly important happening since it will affect virtually everybody, pretty much globally. For CBDCs to work as nefariously intended by our rulers-and-ruler-wannabes, competing money forms like cash, cryptos, and the like must be eliminated. This hasn’t happened yet, but it seems imminent.

Our spectrum of possibilities would have, at one end, CBDCs gaining dominance within, say, 12-18 months from today, and at the other end, CBDCs failing completely to replace competing money forms within that period. The mid-area would represent uncertainty as to which outcome will prevail.

This situation seems to be one in which nobody can possibly know – reliably – what will actually happen. There are almost certainly dozens of sources and divergent views on this, some strongly held as always, but the reality here is that the outcome is unknowable. While one or a few may turn out to have been right post-happening, that won’t help us deal going forward with the currently unknowable situation.

So, what to do?

The approach that I favor involves, for example,  tracking the CBDC situation closely in order to identify events and trends that may tell us something about whatever may be going on behind the scenes. There are many sources of opinions, insights, and agendas on this vital concern:

“Russia is about to ban non-state-controlled circulation of cryptocurrency, including trading, mining and internal crypto transactions. This is according to Anton Tkachev, a member of the State Duma, the Russian parliament, and the deputy head of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies and Communications.”

“Tkachev noted that the use of cryptocurrency in Russia is very limited as is and it is insufficiently regulated by the state. This new directive – which will keep cryptocurrency legal, including its individual possession – is part of the Kremlin’s efforts to amend this. “

“Once the updated regulations are implemented, Tkachev explained that Russian individuals will be barred from using cryptocurrencies to conduct internal transactions. It is unclear when these new amended laws will come into force. While Tkachev noted that the Kremlin wants to discourage citizens from using crypto in the domestic economy, he conceded that cryptocurrency will likely continue to play a role in the economy.”

Where might this news item fit on our spectrum of absolutely-true-to-absolutely-false news on CBDCs-soon? Probably a bit toward the “absolutely-true” end, but still pretty much “who knows”. What has changed? Russia making cryptos “legal” but officially discouraging their use domestically. Maybe just a first step while the Russian CBDC gets in place and moving. And the source reliability? TBD.

I would keep watching for similar or contrary moves in other countries since this situation, if true, could impact us all hugely. Preparing after it happens won’t work for most.

Can we make any sense of what’s happening on WW III?

WW III is big news these days as the Middle East seems set to explode as a second major war zone after the still-active Ukraine mess. Israel’s drive into Gaza for Hamas-related reasons is being verbally-challenged by all manner of officials and pundits on all sides of everything. Today [Nov. 4], Hezbollah seems ready to become actively involved, likely with the backing of Iran.

A nuclear world war is what people fear the most. Non-nuclear wars have been going on everywhere, forever – normal state of the world.
A nuclear world war is what people fear the most. Non-nuclear wars have been going on everywhere, forever – normal state of the world.

This mess gets even messier with “Biden sends War Powers notification to Congress following strikes in Iraq and Syria”:

“President Biden officially notified Congress of the targeted strikes that he ordered earlier this week and promised to ‘take further action’ against further attacks on U.S. bases and troops in the region. “

“The president in a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, and Senate Pro Tempore President Patty Murray, Washington Democrat, explained his rationale for ordering retaliatory airstrikes against militia groups in Iraq and Syria affiliated with Iran. Mr. Biden is constitutionally required to notify Congress of the use of military force under the War Powers Resolution.”

And yet more …

“The U.S. has already intercepted missiles from Yemen. The U.S. military in Iraq have been attacked. U.S. and Israeli embassies throughout the world have been attacked. Iran has threatened to intervene in the Israel/Hamas war. Iranian proxies and assets have long been recorded operating in Syria. Hezbollah has permitted rocket fire primarily by Palestinian factions in Lebanon in the past two weeks. Those on the right in Israel want Egypt to take responsibility for and control of Gaza, something Egypt apparently wants no part of. (Source)”

So, how might this situation be handled for our purposes of understanding?

Since wars have been going on nearly everywhere for nearly forever, yet another war or wars would just be more of the noisy-uncertain world acting up as always. Unless of course you happen to be in ground zero for one of these. What would affect us greatly is if these local and forever wars morphed into the big-one – a nuclear WW III.

Our true-false spectrum in this case might be defined as “… Nuclear WW III will not break out despite the machinations by quite a few belligerent players” – true-false. Is this more likely today to be true or false, based on whatever “reports” we have available?

WW III is likely just to happen unannounced. Why? Because of its globally-devastating consequences. Nobody will start such a war, but it will start – if it starts – as a result of so many of these nobodies being especially active right now.

What might one look for in monitoring this war situation? Probably most important would be an increasing brittleness and sense of desperation, either or both of which would make a big-war move much more likely.

In practice, I would find maybe seven sources of war information, including at least one from government, and track their reports and views. The government source(s) would start at the false end of this spectrum (as George Carlin recommended), and the other sources would move from their starting (midway) positions, based on whether or not their evolving information indicated reliability.

“I’ve set my own rules to live by. The first one is: ‘Never believe anything the government says.’”

— George Carlin

My present view is that we are most likely to remain in wars-as-usual for an extended period and that the nuclear big-war is still very unlikely. War situations of this nature are great for business and for population distraction.

What about another global lockdown for reasons?

I am reading far too much information these days on global lockdowns for this happening for it not to have some serious likelihood. My sources can’t all be wrong – i.e., believing that there will be a lockdown in the near-future – but reasons offered for the lockdown vary quite a bit.

Again, a lockdown at least as severe as the COVID-19 one will have devastating impacts on every person, business, and organization it covers. Preparing post-event will not work.

Preparing post-event will not work.
Preparing post-event will not work.

“The global elite plan to introduce a near-permanent ‘global state of emergency’ by re-branding climate change as a ‘public health crisis’ that is ‘worse than covid’. This is not news. But the ongoing campaign has been accelerating in recent weeks.”

“It was an editorial in the October edition of the British Medical Journal that got the ball rolling, claiming to speak for over 200 medical journals, it declares it’s … ‘Time to treat the climate and nature crisis as one indivisible global health emergency’.”

“Two days ago, the Director General of the World Health Organization, the UN’s Special Envoy for Climate Change and Health and COP28 President co-authored an opinion piece for the Telegraph, headlined: ‘Climate change is one of our biggest health threats – humanity faces a staggering toll unless we act’.”

“Essentially, once the new legislation is in place, the plan writes itself:

  • Put new laws in place enabling global ‘emergency measures’ in the event of a future ‘public health emergency’
  • Declare climate change a public health emergency, or maybe a ‘potential public health emergency’
  • Activate emergency measures – like climate lockdowns – until climate change is ‘fixed’”

While this is a pretty strong statement about what Kit sees as likely to happen, suppose we have a spectrum based on “There will be no lockdown for any reason in the near future.” Kit’s views as a source could then be placed initially near the “false” end of our spectrum, and we would watch for further input from Kit.

Climate crisis creates a public health emergency, that in turn creates lockdowns, all via WHO.
Climate crisis creates a public health emergency, that in turn creates lockdowns, all via WHO.

Why planning ahead for such situations is so important

You might argue that no one can plan and prepare for situations such as these examples. We all just have to do the best we can as things happen. Post-situation. But, if you had known ahead what COVID-19 was going to deliver to people and organizations, would you have made some protective and adaptive moves pre-situation? Of course.

There are enough serious situations facing pretty much everyone today that one or more seems extremely likely to happen, near-term. This is the time to develop resilience, agility, and adaptability.

However, it is clearly impossible for anyone or any organization to tackle more than a very few of the top situations. Otherwise, time, attention, and resources will get spread too thinly for effectiveness. This means that you must have a way to prioritize both situations and strengthening actions.

Prioritization requires a solid understanding of how each situation may impact you or your organization. A thought exercise or discussion will not do the job here. You need an analytical framework for testing both impacts and proposed strengthening actions. It should:

  1. Tell you where situation impacts will affect you most
  2. Allow you to test proposed strengthening actions
  3. Give you a prioritized basis for action.

 How might this process be implemented?

You will not be at all surprised to hear that I strongly favor using an external consultant to get this process implemented in your organization or business. Why?

  • You want the information source tracking being done by someone external, away from otherwise unavoidable group-think and organizational biases.
  • Doing this right often requires a high-level but carefully-structured simulation model that can represent dynamically the consequences of situation impacts and proposed responses.
  • You want to train an internal resource so that the process can be brought in-house at some point.

Unfortunately, the world mostly doesn’t work this way.

The vast majority does not want to know what is really going on

They want to be led and told what to do. Probably the result of man’s tribal heritage and evolution, where belonging and going-along-to-get-along meant survival. I have discussed this aspect of human nature quite recently – see here and here.

Most people tend to believe or passively accept what they are told by authority figures. This is tribal stuff, and should come as no surprise. It’s just our human nature at work, we being largely humans.

As a result, not only does almost nobody really know what’s going on, but most are quite content with not knowing. The title of this post might better have been: “Does anybody really care about whatever is going on?”.

This situation is not necessarily bad, since the belonging and going-along-to-get-along components of human nature still dominate human nature. Such folks, which by one estimate account for about 70% of populations, are mostly okay with following their current set of leaders, enablers, and influencers.

In theory at least, this makes them most likely to survive whatever may be going on out there in reality. Of course, this belief requires their leaders, enablers, and influencers to be correct about what they are telling their followers and supporters. Looking however at our current crop of such leaders – aka rulers-and-ruler-wannabes, the survival prospects of this majority appear none too bright. Or at least in my view.

Can this situation be changed? Probably not, unless something huge happens outside of the machinations of rulers-and-ruler-wannabes. Which it always does – eventually.

Can us in the 30% (or fewer) minority do anything constructive to help something huge (and favorable) to happen?

Possibly, as I have muttered much about in prior posts. I have argued that you can’t fight propaganda with facts, but only with better propaganda. And, as well, being stellar personal examples of what such thinking people might do.

This means that the minority who choose such a path must have a pretty solid understanding of what might really be going on out there.

So, just how might I walk the talk in this situation?

How would I go about gaining some decent understanding of whatever may really be going on out there in reality-ville? And then, what might I be able to suggest to do about whatever is going on?

As it so happens, I have been helping clients for many years carry out just such a process. You ultimately get pretty good at it, despite some early years of learning a great deal the hard way.

People at or near the top of organizations and major units often have a hard time finding out reliably what is going on, both in their own units and in situations that they encounter daily. Subordinates and even specialists in outside units tend to be very cautious in what they pass along. Like their jobs may depend on such caution, which they frequently do.

This makes it of particular value to have an external resource – executive coach or consultant – to provide not only independent assessments but also ideas on what the client might do in each situation. Many times, the assistance extends deeply into implementation of whatever the client decides.

Most clients value greatly the unbiased, often-creative, insights that an external resource with extensive and varied experience can offer. You can find some actual (much disguised) examples of how this works in another section of this site: “Three Coaching Process Examples”. These are of course only a very small sample of what one actually handles over a long experience.

Tapping the “extremes” to define the space of possibilities

You might find it of interest to know about one of my not-so-secret trade secrets in this business. Not-so-secret because I have described it fairly often in my posts. This approach involves seeking out a number of “extreme” or outspoken views on the situation. There are nearly always quite a few of these.

The trick is to get them from all sides of an issue. Too many from any particular side tends to bias findings. In my posts, you may have noticed quite a number of very strong views quoted from a variety of sources. These help me anchor the boundaries of whatever reality may be up to. Then, I can try to find a view, typically a combination of aspects, that seems to me a “most likely” picture of the underlying reality.

The various views usually appear as a scattershot pattern rather than any discernable boundary, so the task becomes one of seeking commonalities and solid evidence. I often find that one or two views, albeit rather outspoken, prove to be reliable to at least some useful degree over some period of time.

This is where experience doing just this sort of thing is essential. I think it is called “wisdom”, especially when gained through many learning-the-hard-way experiences.

I have often found that people will tell me things that they would not tell an insider. Why? Because of course they learn that they can trust me to keep such information fully confidential. Trust is probably the most important factor in this kind of work.

Bottom line:

How can we live or manage without really knowing what’s going on? It is so hard to find anything that can be believed on its face. One practical approach is to track several sources of information and the reliability of each over time. This would require also assessing changes in what each source reports, since changes can reveal details of underlying processes and players.

Using external resources to handle the tracking and assessment chores can help eliminate biases and blind spots of most internal resources.

Here are three excerpts from what I regard as outspoken, probably rather extreme, points of view on what’s happening and what’s coming. There is almost certainly some good information in each of these, along with quite a bit of creative projection, ranting, and surmising. The job at hand for those of us interested in knowing what’s going on is to extract the reliable, likely-valid points from each of these. I have done so, at least to my satisfaction. Can you do the same for yourself?

“Not long ago at the height of fear over the global pandemic the US underwent a change that many people argued would never happen. For years I have heard people say that authoritarian controls in America are ‘tinfoil hat conspiracy theory’ and doom mongering – All the prepping, all the talk of community organizing, all the guns and the gear and the training were for nothing. Then…the covid agenda hit like a freight train.”

“Our constitutional rights were no longer set in stone, but mere guidelines that government officials could bend or break in the name of ‘public health safety.’ Laws no longer had to be passed through a series of checks and balances; mandates could be implemented as if they were laws without public oversight and enforced unilaterally.”

“There was talk (primarily among Democrats) of severe punishments for people who refused the pointless covid vaccines. They wanted vaccine passports, they wanted prison time for those that spoke publicly against the vax, they wanted people’s jobs taken away, they wanted their children taken away, and there were even plans to build covid detention centers to segregate and lock up ‘vax deniers.’”

“It boggles the mind, but this was serious debate within the US and it was all triggered in the span of a year. Nearly half the country was willing to abandon the Bill of Rights over a virus with a survival rate of 99.8%. The conspiracy theorists were right all along; our freedoms rest on a razor’s edge and preparing to survive and fight for those freedoms is perfectly rational.”

“Luckily, the covid agenda failed. The mandates were ultimately blocked by red states and in many rural areas they were barely enforced at all. Biden’s vaccine passport attempt was stopped cold by the Supreme Court, but I have long believed that the Supreme Court made this decision exactly because of the level of public resistance.  They knew if they pressed the issue, civil war was on the table. Medical authoritarianism collapsed because conservatives and independents were not onboard and they could not be shamed into compliance.”

… Umm …

“WHO statement on the high-level meeting on pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response:”

“The World Health Organization [WHO] welcomed today’s historic commitment shown by global leaders, at the UNGA [UN General Assembly], to strengthen the international cooperation, coordination, governance, and investment needed to prevent a repeat of the devastating health and socioeconomic impact caused by COVID-19, make the world better prepared for future pandemic, and get back on track to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.”

“’The first-ever head of state summit on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response is a historic milestone in the urgent drive to make all people of the world safer, and better protected from the devastating impacts of pandemics,’ said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. ‘I welcome this commitment by world leaders to provide the political support and direction needed so that WHO, governments and all involved can protect people’s health and take concrete steps towards investing in local capacities, ensuring equity and supporting the global emergency health architecture that the world needs.’”

“The political declaration, approved by Mr. Dennis Francis, President of the 78th United Nations General Assembly (2023), and the result of negotiations under the able leadership of Ambassadors Gilad Erdan of Israel and Omar Hilale of Morocco, underscored the pivotal role played by WHO as the ‘directing and coordinating authority on international health,’ and the need to ‘commit further to sustainable financing that provides adequate and predictable funding to the WHO, which enables it to have the resources needed to fulfil its core functions.’”

“Neither the UN nor the WHO statement mentions the number of world leaders or heads of state, who approved the crucial WHO documents, the severely revised (more than 90 points of revision) International Health Regulations (IHR), including the Pandemic Treaty – which is actually no longer a treaty, as it is planned to ram it through during the next World Health Assembly (WHA) in May 2024 – making the new IHR effective without a vote. “

… Umm …

“’The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized.’”

“’Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons… who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.’”
– Edward Bernays – Propaganda (1928) pp. 9–10

“’Axis of Evil’ seems to be interchangeable, based upon who the Deep State needs to be the enemy at any given time. Bush junior first coined the phrase in his January 29, 2002 State of the Union speech when describing Iran, Iraq and North Korea. Of course, we know his Deep State handlers then falsified claims of 9/11 involvement and WMDs, to take out Sadaam and steal his oil. The barely cogent doddering old fool senator McConnell this week declared Russia, China and Iran as the new ‘Axis of Evil’. You notice Iran is still in the club, but they now consider two nuclear armed superpowers to be evil and enemies. Kim Jong Un must be so disappointed at being kicked out of the club.”

… Umm …

Edward Bernays, the guy who combined propaganda concepts with modern communications technologies.
Edward Bernays, the guy who combined propaganda concepts with modern communications technologies.