I read last week about the amazing half-million-plus jobs growth in January 2023. What great news! Or perhaps not. Maybe it is little more than an opinion. Or possibly a lie, or even a damned lie, or worst of all – a statistic. What is the difference between these, if any? And why does it matter to us normal folk?
Our world today is one of continuous, unpredictable change. It seems likely to stay this way for an unpredictable length of time. But managing a business requires some ability to see what’s ahead – to predict. How can you predict well enough for managing a business or organization in such an unpredictable world? Here are a few ideas.
Expertosis – overdependence on the input of “experts” and poll sources to support major decisions. Today’s complex world makes expert input almost unavoidable but we need some way to establish the credibility of such sources. Much “expertise” is simply opinion, agenda, or inapplicable to your context. How might you establish the source credibility – trust – that you need?
Forecasting provides the essential foundation for business planning. You cannot plan without having some reliable picture of what the future holds. Forecasts aim at specifics while prediction addresses the big picture. Both are normally based on data and trends. But what can you do if you have no data that can be projected reliably into the future? Like today, in the new non-normal?
